Tariffs and trade

Making sense of the current situation

I generally don’t post about politics, and really this is not about politics, although it is the position of the current Trump administration on tariffs that has spurred me to write something here. After a very long career as an Economics Professor, and my current status as a Professor Emeritus if I choose to use that honorific, I remain fundamentally interested in economics and helping others understand the world through economics.

While discussing the current “trade war” instigated by the massive universal tariffs placed on goods imported into the United States in the early months of the Trump 47 administration, I have been drawn into an investigation of what Stephen Miran has called the Mar-a-Lago Accord, a three-element plan to bring manufacturing back the US, to eliminate the US trade imbalance, and to reduce the impact of the US Federal debt. To provide a basis for understanding some of this, the article below from the American Institute for Economic Research is highly recommended. It is clearly written (with only a few errors) and quite comprehensive.

Identity crisis

Some people criticize those who post photos with the license plate blanked out, like in the photo from a FB group above. I too, thought this unnecessary because anyone can see your plate when out on the road.

But a couple of years ago I changed my mind. My daughter’s car (which is registered in my name) plate was copied and reproduced in metal, full size, and run on a car in a state 2000 miles away and used to break the law. Her plate was photographed on a completely different car in a far off state. The situation was ultimately resolved, but my local police were unaware of this scam. Posting a clear photo of your plate just makes it easier for these people to steal your identity and commit crimes in your name.

Ezra Klein on the presidency

This short video essay is really, really good. I mean, it’s smart and thoughtful and thought provoking. I’ve followed The Ezra Klein Show podcast for some years now, and although not without fault and quirks, he is one of the most intelligent political commentators of our time. He writes opinion columns for the New York Times and writes books (for example: https://www.amazon.com/Why-Were-Polarized-Ezra-Klein-ebook/dp/B07TRNVTZQ/ref=sr_1_2).
But this video essay is about the early days of the Trump presidency which has been a total barrage (“flooding the zone at muzzle velocity”) of executive orders and actions by Elon Musk’s DOGE team, all supported by the Republican controlled congress.

We should all have a Big Adventure

Paul Reubens died, at age 70, on Sunday, after a long illness. He was best known as Pee-wee Herman, and that’s the person who I certainly knew, and loved for his quirkiness and queer innocence. Some people might remember him as the guy who got caught with his pants down in the back of a porn theatre, long before we had cancel culture, but just like Kramer from Seinfeld, some times you weigh more than a duck, and you end up burned at the stake.
I came to the United States in 1984, just as Ronald Reagan was winning his second term, and just before Paul Reubens hooked up with Tim Burton (who went on to make Beetlejuice, Edward Scissorhands, and Batman, along with many other memorable movies) to make the movie “Pee-wees Big Adventure” in 1985. It wasn’t the movie , however, that captured my attention, but the Saturday morning CBS childrens show “Pee-wee’s Playhouse.” From 1986 to 1990 I watched each Saturday morning while Pee-wee paraded a gaggle of soon-to-become famous actors across the screen (Laurence Fishburne was Cowboy Curtis, Phil Hartman was Captain Carl) as weird and wonderful characters in his make-believe world, that was simple, and kind, and surreal, and certainly aimed at adults more than kids. But the best kids entertainment (Bugs Bunny, Sponge Bob Squarepants, for example) are really gritty satirical adult shows masquerading as kids shows which makes them even better entertainment (and watchable by the whole family!)
Pee-wee gave me some lifetime lines, such as “I know you are, but what am I?”, and the common French line “merci, blah, blah.” And of course my favorite: : “I wouldn’t sell my bike for all the money in the world. Not for a hundred million, trillion, billion dollars!”

I’m saddened by the death of Paul Reubens, and I hope he’s remembered as the comic genius he was.

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/postscript/paul-reubenss-preposterous-grace

ChatGPT

I was searching on Google for a tool rest for my wood lathe and came across a website with the following text, accompanied by (relevant to the search) photographs.

I sure hope ChatGPT is NOT being trained on text like this, although since it employs the entire corpus of the web for written forms of language I suspect this is part of what the generative pre-trained transformer is basing its next response on…

(And oddly, the text below reminds me of the descriptions usually accompanying anything being offered on Ebay by a Chinese seller.)

Tool Rest For Wood Lathe
Paletta extended surgical incision crisscross Atomic does width brought an increase in the volume of the car ensuring stability and rigidity. Ideally the gumshoe would account for nearly an inch by twenty-five percent of the forest and around the need to cut. Me and my making out economic written reviews for substantive woodworking. XX position 4 real substance abuser friendly indexing agreement sport was added to the super C 1220 GERTJAN BLEEKER Tool Rest For Wood Lathe-5. JET 1220VS fanny HERBERT DANLER be Group A rescuer respectable money Tool Rest For Wood Lathe-5. Are you a woodturner purchase your lathe organize operating theatre by peerless of these beautiful tornio Hollowing enceinte vessls is circle item antiophthalmic easier with a unfluctuating rich this is a simple group questioning.Organic structure including two dozen in attitude

Starting the year off well

Each new year day I try to do things I hope to continue all year long. This includes a New Year’s Resolution Ride, something I’ve done almost without fail for 43 years. This year I also made a spinning top, took some photos, read something, listened to a podcast, and posted on my Facebook group, Spin in Style. I visited with my children and caught up with an old friend. It was a full day, and now I’m tired.

What podcasts I listen to

I listen to the following podcasts on a regular basis.

My first thing in the morning go to is The Intelligence (daily) from The Economist. I also consistently listen the following weeklies: from The Economist there’s Checks and Balance, Drum Tower, and Money Talks. The really great thing about these podcasts is that you don’t have to subscribe to The Economist to listen to them. (Sometimes I wonder why I pay my $170 annual subscription when this is the case…)

I also listen to Up First from NPR and The Daily from the New York Times each day. Depending on the topic I also regularly listen to Babbage and The Economist Asks from The Economist, The Ezra Klein Show from the NYT, This American Life, What Next from Slate Magazine, Today Explained from Vox, NPR’s Short Wave on science, as well as NPR’s Planet Money. I often enjoy Fresh Air from NPR as well as The Long Read from The Guardian.

The best podcasts of 2022

I listened to many podcasts this year. My favorite podcast was The Prince from The Economist, an 8-part (plus extras) series telling the story of Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and President of the Peoples’s Republic of China, the most powerful person in the world (sorry Joe…) Despite restrictions on foreign journalists inside China, host Sue-Lin Wong and her co-authors created a deep and personal view of the leader of China and his vision for the 1.4 bilion people under his control. The story is primarily told through interviews with Chinese and non-Chinese people with first hand experience of Xi and China, although many now live outside the country. I highly recommend this podcast to anyone who wishes to better understand what must be the most important country and leader in the world over the next ten years.

I also listened to another 8-part podcast called Gatecrashers which tells the story of how the Ivy League schools discriminated against Jews in the twentieth century. Each episode tells a story from one of the eight schools, starting with Columbia and ending with Harvard. It’s super interesting and both desettling and uplifting overall.

The Economist to the Stars is dead, long live The Economist to the Stars!

Thirty years ago, in 1992, a call to the Economics Department at the University of New Mexico was forwarded to me. The caller was TJ Trout, a local celebrity disc jockey who had the morning drive time show. He was very popular on 94 Rock radio (FM 94.1 KZRR). He had called the department looking for an economist to go on the radio and explain to his listeners what the heck Ross Perot, the independent candidate for US President, was talking about. Perot was talking about the US Government deficits and debt, and the presentation was confusing, especially when he started referring to the debt as the grandma in the basement!
As an Assitant Professor, I was at work, unlike many of my senior colleagues, and so, as the only economist in the building, the call was passed to me. Thus begun a 30 year stint on the radio, as a guest of TJ Trout, initially with 94 Rock and lately with 96.3 News Radio (KKOB).
The moniker Economist to the Stars came after being dubbed The 94 Rock Economist, and stuck around even after TJ had retired from radio, moved out of state, and then returned and rejoined the workforce with News Radio (where The 94 Rock Economist would NOT have worked.)
I was not a regular guest, more an occasional guest, but I got on well with TJ and managed to share a little economic theory and insight with his listeners over the years. Radio is tough, and I usually got to speak for about 15 minutes out of the hour, having to compete with the news, traffic and weather reports, and advertisements.
I recently decided to hang up my headphones. Thirty years was a good innings, but no more.
Previous posts about my radio days:
My Alter Ego
Talk about a rock star economist